Francesco Bagnaia’s ideal replacement is already under Ducati’s nose, and he knows how to prove it

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Francesco Bagnaia had his worst campaign for five years in the 2025 MotoGP season, and his future with the works Ducati team will be at risk if he struggles again in 2026.

The 28-year-old had been the top dog at Ducati since arriving in Borgo Panigale in the 2021 season and immediately emerging as a title contender. But the arrival of Marc Marquez this season coincided with Bagnaia struggling to adapt to the Ducati Desmosedici GP25 all year.

Bagnaia retiring from six of the final seven Grands Prix to close out the 2025 MotoGP season even meant he fell to only fifth place in the riders’ standings. The Italian ended the year with just 288 points after 22 rounds, compared to the 545 that Marquez secured from 18 rounds.

Before Marquez required season-ending shoulder surgery in October, he also took 11 Grand Prix wins, 15 podiums, eight pole positions and 14 Sprint wins. Bagnaia took two wins, eight podiums, three poles and two Sprint wins in 2025. Now, Ducati are considering their future.

Gresini’s Ducati-backed rider Fermin Aldeguer targets top-five finishes in every race in 2026

Bagnaia is set to be out of contract with Ducati after the 2026 season, when most of the grid will also see their deals end. Only LCR’s Johann Zarco and Diogo Moreira have works Honda contracts into 2027, and Yamaha also only have Toprak Razgatlioglu of Pramac locked down.

READ MORE: Everything to know about Fermin Aldeguer with his rise to MotoGP and height

Ducati view Yamaha’s Fabio Quartararo as a top target for 2027 as they monitor the MotoGP rider market, with Marquez also out of contract next year. Yet Ducati already have their ideal replacement for Bagnaia in Gresini ace Fermin Aldeguer, who also already has a factory deal.

Ducati placed Aldeguer at Gresini for the 2025 season on an initial two-year works contract, which they can extend into 2027 and 2028. The 20-year-old also impressed as a rookie on a GP24 in 2025, with the Spaniard even becoming a race winner in his 18th outing in MotoGP.

Gresini watched Aldeguer secure a dominant win in the 2025 Indonesian Grand Prix, for one of his three rookie rostrums. And the Murcian now hopes to build on his rookie results next year by finishing every race inside the top five, as he switches his Ducati GP24 for the GP25.

Aldeguer told AUTOhebdo: “It will be difficult, but not impossible [to improve my results in 2026]. For me, the important thing will be to continue like this next year.

“I have three clear objectives [for 2026], to enjoy myself, to improve and to stay in the top five in every race. This year, on some tracks, in some races, I made a few mistakes. But that’s part of the progress. I’m sure next season will be even better. I certainly hope so.”

Ducati will watch Fermin Aldeguer closely in 2026 with an eye towards 2027

Aldeguer achieving or coming close to his target of finishing every race inside the top five in 2026 would surely go a long way towards convincing Ducati that he is the ideal replacement for Bagnaia. It would also be more impressive after Bagnaia’s struggles to adapt to the GP25.

The growing speculation in the MotoGP paddock at the end of the 2025 season also claimed that Ducati will give Aldeguer a works bike in 2027 if he delivers in 2026. Bosses from Borgo Panigale will keep very close tabs on his form next year, especially if Bagnaia labours again.

Aldeguer grew into his rookie campaign before emerging as a potential Grand Prix winner in August. He chased Marquez down for the lead in Austria, and he later won for the first time in Indonesia. Now, Aldeguer’s consistency must improve, after averaging P8.4 from 18 finishes.