Matt Birt reveals the ‘hot gossip’ in the MotoGP paddock around Francesco Bagnaia’s Ducati future

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Francesco Bagnaia sounded positive after riding an early version of the GP26 at the post-season test in Valencia. He will now be relieved that he can take a break from riding until February.

Bagnaia stressed before the season finale that he wanted to stay at Ducati, dismissing any notion that his miserable 2025 had led him to pursue a fresh start.

The Desmosedici motorcycles remain the best on the grid until proven otherwise, but Bagnaia could only manage fifth in the championship, 257 points behind teammate Marc Marquez despite the world champion’s absence at the last four races.

Bagnaia scored more podiums than Marco Bezzecchi and Pedro Acosta ahead, but he was plagued by a baffling inconsistency. His nine DNFs were almost as many as Bezzecchi and Acosta combined (11).

Fermin Aldeguer ‘most likely’ to get Ducati seat if he delivers in 2026

While he wants to sign an extension before his current deal expires at the end of next year, Bagnaia must know that a repeat of this year won’t be tolerated. Ducati CEO Claudio Domenicali says third place would have been ‘totally acceptable’, but he missed out on that objective by some margin in the end (65 points).

The standout candidate to replace Bagnaia is Fermin Aldeguer, the Gresini rider who’s on a Ducati contract. Aldeguer won the Rookie of the Year award for 2025 and took a maiden Grand Prix victory in Australia.

Alex Marquez beat Aldeguer to a factory bike for 2026, but according to MotoGP commentator Matt Birt, the latter is still expected to get a promotion ‘if he delivers next year’.

“There is no doubt about it, is there?” Birt said during the Valencia test. “Ducati are going to be monitoring his progress very, very closely for 2027 and beyond.

“There’s already some hot gossip around the paddock that, if he delivers next year, then it’s most likely that Aldeguer could win the race, should there be a seat available, of course, in the factory Ducati team.

“Pecco Bagnaia will have a big part to play in that. Aldeguer, if he continues this rapid rate of progression, you just know he’ll be one of the names Ducati will be looking very closely at.”

Francesco Bagnaia’s first review of the Ducati GP26

Luigi Dall’Igna says Ducati and Bagnaia must rebuild their ‘trust’ in one another heading into next year. For much of the year, they disagreed over whether the downturn was caused by a bike issue or a rider issue.

Davide Tardozzi thinks Bagnaia ‘found his way’ on Tuesday, attributing his crash to overconfidence. Tardozzi was pleased that the two-time world champion was able to push.

Bagnaia said his pace was ‘significantly better’ in the test than it had been during the Valencia weekend. He enters the break with ‘a lot of confidence and peace of mind’.

Ducati’s priority will be renewing Marquez, and they’re likely to take some time to assess Bagnaia before deciding what to do with the second seat.