Francesco Bagnaia told there’s a ‘90% chance’ Ducati let him go to sign ‘talented young rider’ for 2027

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Francesco Bagnaia’s Ducati future could be at the centre of the 2027 MotoGP rider market. At the start of the season, it was conceivable that he’d spend his whole premier-class career on Desmosedici motorcycles.

Bagnaia is one of Ducati’s greatest-ever riders, having won the world championship in 2022 and 2023. But now, TNT Sports pundit Neil Hodgson is adamant that his time at Borgo Panigale will soon come to an end.

The Italian is third in the world championship – not a disastrous showing on the surface – but his teammate Marc Marquez has beaten him by 250 points, and Bagnaia has completely lost his way. He has fallen further off the pace as the season has progressed, with Ducati engineers baffled.

Luigi Dall’Igna maintains that Ducati’s bike has barely changed, implying that Bagnaia’s major drop-off is a rider issue. And while the team may no longer be quite so dominant as a collective, his seat is likely to be the most coveted heading into next year.

Neil Hodgson ‘cannot see’ Francesco Bagnaia signing a new Ducati contract

Hodgson has already expressed confidence that Marquez won’t rejoin Honda despite some whispers that a fairytale comeback would tempt the soon-to-be world champion. On the contrary, he believes the Spaniard will be the first rider who signs an extension next year.

From there, Ducati will assess the market to find the ‘next talented young rider’ who can replace Bagnaia as Marquez’s teammate. The former joined the factory team in 2021 after spending his first two seasons at Pramac.

Hodgson anticipates that Bagnaia may have the chance to stay on a Ducati in satellite colours, potentially for Valentino Rossi’s team. As a graduate of the VR46 academy, he may be offered a soft landing.

But Jorge Lorenzo thinks Bagnaia is better off leaving Ducati altogether, and Hodgson agrees.

“I cannot see him re-signing with the factory Ducati team,” the pundit said during TNT’s Catalan GP practice coverage.

“He’ll do next year, but as we start next year, Marc Marquez is going to be the first to sign, probably. Ducati will get him locked in, and then they’ll play a waiting game to see who’s the next talented young rider.

“With current form, I’m 90% confident he won’t be in the factory Ducati team. Someone like the VR46 team might want him on a Ducati, but I think if you’re Pecco, you’re probably looking to change manufacturers because he knows he can’t beat Marc on the same bike.”

Who could Ducati sign to replace Francesco Bagnaia?

The question, then, is who this young rider could be. Ducati have been linked with Fabio Quartararo, but he will turn 27 next year.

Pedro Acosta could be Ducati’s next superstar, taking over from Marquez when he eventually retires or moves on. Acosta has already had talks with VR46, but his talent arguably merits a direct route to the factory team.

Dall’Igna could also promote Fermin Aldeguer from Gresini, having been impressed by the peaks of his rookie season. But he will need to improve his consistency to earn that kind of opportunity.

Ducati are also monitoring David Alonso, though one suspects he will begin at a satellite team if indeed he steps up from Moto2 at the end of 2026.