Only one MotoGP rider seriously thought Marc Marquez wouldn’t win the 2025 world title

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Marc Marquez’s 2025 world championship success didn’t come as a surprise. As Jorge Lorenzo put it, when the rider widely regarded as the best on the grid jumped onto the fastest bike, it simply came down to ‘mathematics’.

Marquez only took part in 18 weekends, missing the last four due to injury. But his win rate across the 36 races he started (Sprints + Grand Prix) was a whopping 69.4%.

Before the season started, MotoGP’s official channel asked every single rider to predict who would win the title. Joan Mir, Fermin Aldeguer, Alex Rins, Johann Zarco and Ai Ogura all picked Marquez outright.

Alex Marquez, Somkiat Chantra, Miguel Oliveira, Jack Miller, Raul Fernandez, Maverick Vinales and Enea Bastianini all narrowed it down to the Ducati factory duo of Marquez and Bagnaia, but were non-committal beyond that.

Luca Marini was the only rider who backed Francesco Bagnaia over Marc Marquez

Brad Binder, Fabio Quartararo and Franco Morbidelli all backed themselves, but did so in a light-hearted manner. The only rider who seriously thought Marquez would lose out was Honda’s Luca Marini.

Marini picked Bagnaia as his champion, which is perhaps not surprising given that they are both members of the VR46 riders’ stable.

Of course, Marini is also the half-brother of Valentino Rossi, whose rivalry with Marquez was so intense that they’re no longer on speaking terms.

Marquez will enter the 2026 season as the overwhelming favourite too, though Marco Bezzecchi and Aprilia emerged as dark horses after a magnificent end to the campaign.

Why Luca Marini thinks Marc Marquez’s exit helped Honda

Marini doesn’t understand the ‘fuss’ about Rossi and Marquez, so it’s unlikely that he let their feud dictate his prediction.

Intriguingly, Marini said Honda ‘lost their way’ with bike development in their final years with Marquez. The Spaniard could provide ‘what the bike was lacking’, but this actually made it more difficult to address its weaknesses.

Honda returned to the top step of the podium in 2025 with LCR rider Johann Zarco and scored four podiums in total, amassing enough points to move up to Rank C in the concessions system. Marini, who surprisingly found form after an injury absence, finished 13th in the championship.