One MotoGP rider is in a ‘dominant’ position to join Ducati if Francesco Bagnaia flops again in 2026

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Francesco Bagnaia would retire as a Ducati rider if it were up to him, but the extent of his struggles in the 2025 MotoGP season has now left his future hanging by a thread.

The 28-year-old has been under contract directly with Ducati since he graduated to MotoGP back in 2019 riding for Pramac, while the Tuscan team were still their satellite crew. Bagnaia also moved into the works Ducati team back in 2021, and he won the title in 2022 and 2023.

Sealing Ducati’s first premier class title since 2007 and retaining the title also saw the Italian sign fresh terms with the Bologna Bullets in March 2024. But Bagnaia’s £6m per year Ducati contract lapses at the end of 2026, and his form in 2025 may now mark the start of the end.

After fighting for the title during the previous four years, Bagnaia finished the 2025 MotoGP season just fifth in the standings. Marc Marquez won the title in his first year at Ducati, too, and he lifted the crown with five rounds to spare leading Bagnaia by 267 points at the time.

Pedro Acosta is in a ‘dominant’ position to replace Francesco Bagnaia at Ducati in 2027

Bagnaia ultimately finished the year 257 points adrift of Marquez, thanks to the latter sitting out the final four rounds owing to injury. The Turin native did not finish six of the final seven Grands Prix, which added another sorry layer to a campaign that has left his future in doubt.

READ MORE: Everything to know about Francesco Bagnaia from net worth to race number

According to Motorsport.com, Ducati will give Bagnaia the chance to bounce back next year. But if Bagnaia fails to rediscover the form that won him his two titles, then KTM rider Pedro Acosta is in a ‘dominant position’ against the rest of the MotoGP field to join Ducati in 2027.

Like Bagnaia is at Ducati, Acosta is set to be out of contract with KTM at the end of the 2026 season. The 21-year-old also sees riding a Ducati at the start of the 2027 regulations era as his ‘priority’, and he would ‘preferably’ want to represent the Bologna Bullets’ factory team.

Acosta’s time at KTM appears ‘destined to end’ when his current contract expires at the end of the 2026 season. While the Austrian crew have been showering the Mazarron native with ‘unconditional support’, he has lost faith in KTM’s ability to hand him a title-contending bike.

Pedro Acosta outscored Francesco Bagnaia by 107 points in the final 11/22 rounds of 2025

Acosta’s public flirtation with VR46 early in the 2025 season left Fabio Di Giannantonio with a sense of sorrow for KTM, as a product of their investment tried to jump ship for the 2026 campaign. Acosta has represented KTM ever since he won the 2021 Moto3 title as a rookie.

READ MORE: Everything to know about Pedro Acosta from net worth to girlfriend

But Acosta, who also won the 2023 Moto2 title with KTM Ajo, changed his tune later in the 2025 season and focused on what he could produce with the RC16 in its current state. That mindset change led Acosta to taking his five podiums for the year in the final 11/22 rounds.

Before Acosta’s first podium of 2025 with P3 in the Czech Grand Prix, where he also secured P2 in the Brno Sprint, he was only eighth in the riders’ standings with 99 points. Bagnaia was third at the time with 197 points, but Acosta finished the year in fourth place on 307 points.

Should Acosta continue to thrive in 2026 riding a KTM RC16 that he does not fully believe in, then Bagnaia will no doubt have to respond on the Ducati GP26 or risk the Spaniard possibly stealing his seat. Bagnaia could not adapt to the Ducati GP25, and he cannot afford a repeat.