Jorge Martin issues a ‘guarantee’ about Francesco Bagnaia amid baffling MotoGP drop-off

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Jorge Martin and Francesco Bagnaia have fought for the MotoGP title in each of the last two seasons. This year, neither have been a factor – albeit for vastly different reasons.

The Austrian Grand Prix will be Martin’s third race of the season. Two injuries in the winter, and another at the Qatar GP, effectively wiped out the first half of his 2025 campaign.

Bagnaia, who beat Martin in 2023 before losing out last year, has slipped an alarming 168 points off the pace. He hasn’t been able to live with new Ducati teammate Marc Marquez.

Marquez has previously opened up huge leads over highly-rated teammates – Dani Pedrosa at Honda is a good example. But Bagnaia has also slipped behind Gresini’s Alex Marquez, who’s riding a year-old GP24.

Jorge Martin says he isn’t seeing the same Francesco Bagnaia this year

When asked for his thoughts on Bagnaia’s 2025 season, Martin told AS that this year’s Ducati is practically the ‘same’ as its predecessor in terms of performance. On that basis, it’s ‘hard to understand’ why Bagnaia is lagging behind.

Martin is adamant that Bagnaia is better than he’s currently showing. He also believes that the Italian has maintained his self-belief.

Bagnaia has fitted larger brake discs to his Ducati when possible in an attempt to improve his ‘feeling’ with the motorcycle. Marquez’s feedback was more positive from the outset in winter testing.

“I don’t know,” Martin said. “It’s a question you have to ask him. From the outside, it’s hard to understand what’s going on.

“It’s the same bike as Marc’s, and probably the one from last year. What’s going on here? Why isn’t it working? I don’t know.

“He’s not showing his true speed, because I guarantee you that what I saw last year fighting with him on the track wasn’t what I’m seeing now. He certainly trusts himself and knows he’ll be back fighting with the best.”

Pecco Bagnaia spent the summer break pondering what was going wrong – here’s what he realised

Bagnaia has spent the last two extended breaks ruminating on his mistakes. Last winter, he had to work out why he’d been dethroned as world champion.

Indeed, Bagnaia spent his ‘honeymoon’ thinking about his falls. His goal this year was to bring home the points consistently, and while he’s been less error-prone, he’s only managed to win one race.

Up against a machine like Marquez, stability alone isn’t enough. The Spaniard has won eight of the opening 12 Grands Prix and the last five on the bounce.

Bagnaia has now ‘concluded’ that he doesn’t suit the Ducati bike this year in terms of riding style. MotoGP teams have already had to homologate their 2026 engines, so the #63 shouldn’t necessarily expect a major evolution over the off-season.