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Aprilia would never have signed Francesco Bagnaia if they knew how good Ai Ogura really was

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Yamaha have confirmed that Ai Ogura will be joining the factory MotoGP team in 2027 alongside Jorge Martin, raising questions over why Aprilia overlooked the Japanese rider in favour of Francesco Bagnaia.

It’s been somewhat of a whirlwind week for Ogura, who claimed his first Grand Prix victory in the premier class just days before Yamaha announced him as one of their flag-bearers for MotoGP’s new era of regulations in 2027.

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Noale opted to sign Francesco Bagnaia instead 🤔

Trackhouse's Ai Ogura and Aprilia's Jorge Martin posing for a photo after qualifying for the 2026 Dutch GP.
Photo by Gold & Goose Photography/Getty Images

The announcement also comes one day after Yamaha confirmed the exits of Fabio Quartararo and Alex Rins from their factory setup at the end of the current term. The Frenchman is expected to be heading to Honda, while Rins’ future in MotoGP remains unknown.

A multitude of rider moves have happened over the last couple of weeks, with Francesco Bagnaia being confirmed as a factory Aprilia rider following Ducati’s confirmation of Pedro Acosta’s signature.

Aprilia did not know how good Ai Ogura truly was before signing Francesco Bagnaia for 2027

While the announcements for each move are only occurring after MotoGP signed a new deal with each brand regarding a new commercial agreement, the majority of them were reported to have been sorted in pre-season.

News of Bagnaia’s switch from Ducati to Aprilia initially came to light in February, before Ogura was even able to show what he was capable of in his sophomore season after a fairly average rookie campaign with Trackhouse in 2025.

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A graphic of the 2026 MotoGP riders' championship standings after the Dutch Grand Prix

However, the 25-year-old has displayed a stark change in form in 2026. Not only did he claim a maiden Grand Prix victory in Assen, but he has been among the frontrunners for the majority of the current campaign.

He currently sits in P4 in the riders’ championship, just 25 points adrift of future teammate Jorge Martin, and 38 points ahead of the rider that Aprilia have backed for the next four years: Bagnaia.

Of course, Ogura has been riding what is arguably the best bike on the grid, but the Ducati has not been a slouch either; Marc Marquez and Fabio Di Giannantonio have both shown that the GP26 is capable of victory in the Grand Prix format.

Aprilia will be gaining a two-time world champion upon Bagnaia’s arrival at the team next year, but they may have sold themselves short by letting their best young prospect slip through their fingers in exchange for someone whose recent form suggests he might be on the way out.

Time will be the deciding factor in deciding whether the Noale-based outfit has made a mistake, but after Ogura became MotoGP’s first Japanese Grand Prix winner since 2004, he could very well become the first Japanese premier class title-winner, too.