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MotoGP experts predict the Hungarian Grand Prix with Marc Marquez tipped for success at Balaton Park

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MotoGP returns to Balaton Park for only the second time this weekend, and a second Hungarian Grand Prix win may be awaiting Marc Marquez after his return from injury.

Ducati welcomed reigning MotoGP champion Marquez back at Mugello last weekend, having been without the Spaniard following the operations on his shoulder and foot. Marquez could only get P7 in the Italian Grand Prix, but his return was more about testing his right shoulder.

Marquez lost a lot of muscle in his shoulder due to the two screws that bent as a result of his crash in last October’s Indonesian Grand Prix. But the Spaniard shared at Mugello that he did not feel the same nerve issue after the surgery that scuppered the start of his 2026 season.

Balaton Park may suit Marquez far more than Mugello, too, as the Hungarian GP track is a lot less physically demanding than the home of the Italian GP. Also, Marquez won the Sprint and Grand Prix in Hungary in 2025 from pole position amid MotoGP’s debut race at Balaton Park.

Aprilia head to Balaton Park as the in-form team in 2026, though, after Marco Bezzecchi led Jorge Martin home in the Italian GP for their fourth one-two finish of the season after seven rounds. Francesco Bagnaia was the lead Ducati at Mugello with P3, but his threat faded fast.

So, with that in mind, MotoGP News’ expert team of writers have offered their predictions for who will perform the best around Balaton Park across the 2026 Hungarian GP weekend.

Who’s going to win the Hungarian Grand Prix?

TOPSHOT-MOTO-PRIX-HUN-MOTOGP
Photo by STRINGER/AFP via Getty Images

Who will score pole position for the 2026 MotoGP Hungarian Grand Prix?

Kyle Archer – Pedro Acosta: “The tricky layout of Balaton Park will largely negate the lack of straight-line speed that KTM are able to achieve with the RC16 so far this season. Instead, cornering will prove key, and Pedro Acosta could get his second pole position of 2026 at the Hungarian GP, following his second career pole thus far at the Catalan Grand Prix this May.”

David Comerford – Marc Marquez: “I’m all in on Marc Marquez this weekend. I think Balaton Park is one of the least demanding layouts in MotoGP, especially compared to Mugello, so his physical limitations won’t necessarily stop him from hitting the front.”

Ashley Hambly – Jorge Martin: “It’s so surprising that Jorge Martin has yet to claim a pole position this year, considering his record, but the Hungarian Grand Prix could end that. The track layout should suit the Aprilia to a T, and the Spaniard is getting closer and closer after his P3 grid slot at Mugello.”

Which rider will win the Sprint Race at Balaton Park in 2026?

Kyle Archer – Jorge Martin: “Aprilia ace Jorge Martin has often looked his most competitive so far in 2026 during Sprint Races, and Balaton Park might see the latest example this week. Martin is a Sprint sensation with a record 18 Sprint wins, and he will surely look to adopt an aggressive riding style around Balaton Park that could yield another Sprint win in Hungary.”

David Comerford – Marc Marquez: “The world champion has already had some success on Saturdays this year, which makes sense because Marc Marquez clearly starts to tire over the longer race distance. So, I think Marquez will maintain his perfect record at Balaton Park.”

Ashley Hambly – Marco Bezzecchi: “Marco Bezzecchi is still lacking in the Sprint format, despite his championship lead. But if he can get in front of Jorge Martin off the line, then the limited overtaking opportunities should see him cruise to victory in the shorter format.”

Who will win the 2026 MotoGP Hungarian Grand Prix at Balaton Park?

What are your HONEST thoughts on Balaton Park?

The track has come in for a lot of criticism…

The pit straight at the Hungarian Grand Prix
Photo by Gold & Goose Photography/Getty Images

Kyle Archer – Marco Bezzecchi: “Aprilia saw Marco Bezzecchi win the Italian GP to return to the top step of a Grand Prix podium for the first time since his dominant start to 2026 met its end, and the Noale outfit could yet see the Italian begin another streak with victory in the Hungarian GP. Bezzecchi finished third at Balaton Park from P2 on the grid last year, and he should have the pace to rise to the front of the field during the 2026 edition this Sunday.”

David Comerford – Marc Marquez: “Amazingly, Marc Marquez hasn’t won a Grand Prix since Misano last year. It is coming up to nine months, although his injury at the end of last season has clearly been a factor. Marquez has not had a podium on a Sunday in 2026, either, but I expect him to emphatically change that this weekend by winning the Hungarian GP.”

Ashley Hambly – Jorge Martin: “Unlike Marco Bezzecchi, Jorge Martin’s Grand Prix results have been letting him down in the title fight this year. A win in Hungary would certainly be the first step in bridging the points gap between himself and the Italian in the standings.”

Who will make the Balaton Park podium in the 2026 Hungarian GP?

Kyle Archer – Bezzecchi, Martin, Acosta: “Pedro Acosta would surely put up a very valiant defence if he can secure pole position for the Hungarian Grand Prix on the underpowered KTM RC16. But the Aprilia RS-GP is the best bike on the 2026 MotoGP grid and could carry Marco Bezzecchi and Jorge Martin to another one-two finish if they keep out of trouble.”

David Comerford – Marquez, Martin, Acosta: “Jorge Martin has already finished second three times this year, and I think he’ll repeat that result in Hungary to chip away at Marco Bezzecchi’s championship lead. Pedro Acosta also looked rapid here last season but didn’t maximise his potential, although I expect a cleaner weekend from him this time around.”

Ashley Hambly – Martin, Fernandez, Bezzecchi: “Trackhouse rider Raul Fernandez was nothing short of brilliant at Mugello, except for that late entry into Turn 1 at the start of the Italian Grand Prix that scuppered his race from the outset. Still, his pace was very strong, and I expect the Spaniard to carry that form into the race weekend at Balaton Park.”