Marco Bezzecchi
As MotoGP returns to the iconic Mugello Circuit for the 2026 Italian Grand Prix, our team of expert writers have given their predictions on what will take place at the most physically demanding track on the calendar.
Marco Bezzecchi heads into the Italian Grand Prix with a 15-point lead over Aprilia teammate Jorge Martin in the MotoGP standings, following Fabio Di Giannantonio’s victory last time out in Barcelona.
A red-flag-laden Catalan Grand Prix saw Alex Marquez and Johann Zarco suffer heavy crashes with both riders ruled out of the Tuscany-based race weekend as they continue their recoveries.
On the other hand, Marc Marquez is expected to make a return at Mugello following his heavy crash at the French Grand Prix two rounds ago. Pending a medical check on Thursday, the seven-time world champion is hoping to resume his title defence with Ducati.
It was Marquez who took victory across both formats at last year’s edition of the race weekend at Mugello, much to the dismay of the local fans. With that in mind, MotoGP News’ expert team of writers have given their predictions for this year’s Italian Grand Prix.
Who’s your pick for victory at Mugello?
Let us know why in the comments!
Which MotoGP rider will score pole position for the 2026 Italian Grand Prix?
David Comerford – Fabio Di Giannantonio: “Surprisingly, Aprilia have only had one pole position so far this year. It looks like the bike doesn’t come into its own until Sunday. On that basis, I’ll go for the in-form Diggia.”
Tyler Rowlinson – Francesco Bagnaia: “In front of the home faithful, Ducati and Francesco Bagnaia will want to put on a good show. His qualifying has improved of late, and he’s looking fast in training. This is the perfect chance to get back on top.”
Aaditya Krishnamurthy – Marco Bezzecchi: “After extending the lead over Jorge Martin in the championship standings, Marco Bezzecchi will arrive at his home race with all the confidence in the world to pick up another important win, and that starts with securing pole position.”
Ashley Hambly – Fabio Di Giannantonio: “The VR46 star has been Ducati’s most consistent rider by a mile this year, and the Italian constructor’s power unit still seems to hold an advantage over the rest of the manufacturers. His one-lap pace has been mega, so a third pole of 2026 might be on the way.”
Which MotoGP rider will win the 2026 Italian Grand Prix?
David Comerford – Marco Bezzecchi: “He may have struggled in Barcelona, but I can foresee a memorable home victory here. After a couple of podiums in the lower classes, Bezzecchi hasn’t finished higher than fifth at Mugello in MotoGP, but he’ll have the bike to win this weekend.”
Tyler Rowlinson – Jorge Martin: “Like Ducati, Aprilia will want a good result on home soil, and Martin is starting to perhaps gain an advantage. Bezzecchi is struggling on the RS-GP and his teammate is only getting faster. I’m backing Martin to claim the glory at Mugello, and perhaps even lead the championship by the end of the weekend.”
Aaditya Krishnamurthy – Marco Bezzecchi: “A pole will mark the start of a dominant weekend for the Aprilia rider, who I expect to go on and win the entire race, as he dominates the rest of the grid despite some tough battles.”
Ashley Hambly – Fabio Di Giannantonio: “Opting for Diggia again for the same reason I’ve gone for him in my pole prediction. I can’t see anyone matching Ducati’s pace in Mugello, and the Italian rider is currently in red-hot form.”
How do you expect Marc Marquez to fare if he returns at the Italian GP?
Which MotoGP rider will be the biggest surprise at the 2026 Italian Grand Prix?
David Comerford – Maverick Vinales: “It was a solid performance in Barcelona after returning from injury, and I could see popping up from nowhere with a top-six result. He could have had a podium here last year before that incident with Morbidelli.”
Tyler Rowlinson – Brad Binder: “He needs an upturn in form, and the Catalan GP was an encouraging result for the KTM rider. If he can keep up the pace, I don’t see why he can’t maybe mount a challenge for the top five.”
Aaditya Krishnamurthy – Raul Fernandez: “After the controversy of his crash with Jorge Martin, and seeing Ai Ogura show him up in the last two races, I expect Fernandez to deliver one of his best, if not his best, performances this year.”
Ashley Hambly – Diogo Moreira: “The Brazilian secured a career-best finish in the premier class last time out, indicating he is slowly getting used to the bigger prototypes. He was P9 last time out, so I reckon he can eke his way into the top six in Mugello.”
What is Marc Marquez’s ceiling if he is fit to return at the 2026 Italian Grand Prix?
David Comerford: “I don’t think we can rule out a podium, but I can’t see him winning. Marquez’s strength should start coming back now after that bothersome screw was realigned, but it will take a few rounds.”
Tyler Rowlinson: “The main aim for Marc Marquez would be to get through the race without any mishaps. If he stays fit, it’s mission accomplished. I don’t think performance and results will be at the top of the agenda if he does race in Mugello, and even if it was, I don’t think a top result is on the cards. At best, I’ll say P5.”
Aaditya Krishnamurthy: “Top 5. Marquez, even in this reduced physical form, is still one of the best riders in the world, and I can see him securing a top-five finish if he’s relatively healthier, well rested, and highly motivated.”
Ashley Hambly: “With the way Grands Prix have gone for him already this season, I can’t imagine Marquez will be anywhere near the front of the pack. Sunday’s longer format race is already demanding enough, let alone at Mugello.”
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