MotoGP experts predict the United States Grand Prix as Marc Marquez tries to silence his critics

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Ahead of a four-week break, MotoGP arrives at the Circuit of the Americas for the United States Grand Prix with Marc Marquez still searching for his first Grand Prix victory of 2026, so our experts have made their predictions.

When MotoGP last visited the Circuit of the Americas (COTA) in 2025, Marc Marquez crashed from the lead in the Grand Prix, which allowed his teammate, Francesco Bagnaia, to take his first victory of the year. However, this weekend could be all about Aprilia rather than Ducati.

Since the Americas Grand Prix arrived at COTA, Marquez claimed seven victories at the circuit, but has not been victorious in a Grand Prix in Texas since the 2021 season, when he was still with Repsol Honda. Other than Marquez, Alex Rins, Enea Bastianini, Maverick Vinales, and Bagnaia have been victorious at COTA.

After winning both the Thailand and Brazilian Grands Prix, Marco Bezzecchi leads the MotoGP World Championship as the paddock arrives in Texas for the third round of the 2026 MotoGP season, but he has yet to claim victory in a Sprint Race in the early stages of the year.

Despite not winning a Grand Prix in the opening two rounds of the season, Marquez has been successful in the Sprint Races as he finished second in Thailand, before securing Sprint Racing victory at Goiania last time out after beating Fabio di Giannantonio.

But now we are back at a circuit Marquez has dominated at, the question remains whether he can return to winning ways that he has shown in the past.

So, with that in mind, MotoGP News’ expert team of writers have made their predictions for the 2026 United States GP! Be sure to join the discussion on TalkingPoints with your predictions!

Who is going to take pole position for the 2026 United States Grand Prix at COTA?

David Comerford – Marc Marquez: Welcome back Marc Marquez. This is his track, he won the Sprint in Goiania and, for all the difficulties he’s had at the start of this year, I don’t see anyone outpacing him this weekend.

Luke Newman – Marc Marquez: After failing to secure pole position in Thailand and Brazil, Marquez will be looking to prove himself at the Americas GP this weekend. He has started from pole eight times at the Circuit of the Americas, and I believe he will achieve a ninth pole this weekend.

Kyle Archer – Marc Marquez: MotoGP has not seen a repeat polesitter so far in 2026, and the United States Grand Prix will continue the trend as Marc Marquez will be the favourite to top qualifying at COTA. Neil Hodgson felt Marquez changed his riding style in Brazil and looked more comfortable in qualifying, and the Spaniard is very comfortable around COTA.

Tyler Rowlinson – Marc Marquez: COTA is one of Marc Marquez’s favourite hunting grounds and he can be dominant around the circuit if he is on it from the off. This weekend is a big opportunity for the Ducati rider to assert his authority on the championship again, and he’ll do just that with pole position.

MotoGP experts predict the 2026 United States Grand Prix podium

David Comerford – Marquez, Martin, Bezzecchi: Marquez will take the win and the momentum into the break, avoiding the mistake that cost him last year. We’ll still see two Aprilias on the podium, though, with Martin ahead of Bezzecchi this time.

Luke Newman – Bezzecchi, Marquez, Martin: Marc Marquez will not secure a Grand Prix victory in America for the second consecutive year. I believe Marco Bezzecchi will continue his winning streak for Aprilia, following his dominant performances in Thailand and Brazil. In America, I expect him to achieve another victory. Marquez will finally make it onto the Grand Prix podium this season, finishing in second place, with Jorge Martin rounding out the podium in third.

Kyle Archer – Bezzecchi, Marquez, Martin: Marc Marquez is the King of COTA but has not won in Austin, Texas since 2021, and Marco Bezzecchi will extend the Spaniard’s dry run in 2026 thanks to his Aprilia RS-GP’s superior cornering ability compared to the Ducati GP26. Jorge Martin will also build on his podium in Brazil by rounding out the podium in America.

Tyler Rowlinson – Marquez, Bezzecchi, Martin: Bezzecchi and Aprilia have won the last four MotoGP races, and since his comeback, Marquez has not been able to catch them. But his strengths around COTA will give him the edge this weekend and he’ll end Bezzecchi’s hot streak to claim his first win since San Marino last year. Aprilia will put up a strong fight though, with both factory bikes on the podium.

Which MotoGP rider will be the biggest surprise at the 2026 United States Grand Prix?

David Comerford – Diogo Moreira: I’m going to say Diogo Moreira will bag his first top 10 finish. He’s been quietly impressive in his first couple of races.

Luke Newman – Luca Marini: In the past, when he rode for VR46, Luca Marini had success in America, and I believe he will secure his first top five of the season this weekend on the Honda.

Kyle Archer – Brad Binder: COTA’s 1.18 km (0.73m) back straight could be an issue for KTM in 2026, after how easily rival riders overtook Pedro Acosta during the Brazilian Grand Prix. But as KTM have sacrificed top speed to make the RC16 a more complete bike, Acosta had led the standings after Thailand, which should encourage Brad Binder in the United States.

Tyler Rowlinson – Johann Zarco: Honda have been making steady progress in 2026, and Zarco has been the manufacturer’s lead rider again, thanks to Joan Mir continuing to be Joan Mir and crashing out of races. The Frenchman put in a strong performance last year at COTA before he too crashed, and one thinks he’ll be in with a shout of a top five finish this weekend.

Which MotoGP rider will be the biggest disappointment at the Circuit of the Americas?

David Comerford – Fabio Di Giannantonio: After an excellent Brazil weekend, I fear Fabio Di Giannantonio will drop off. Inconsistency has been the undoing of both VR46 riders in recent times.

Luke Newman – Pedro Acosta: After an excellent start to the season in Thailand, Pedro Acosta dropped off in Brazil, and I believe he will have another average weekend in America, and he will continue to slip further down the Championship standings.

Kyle Archer – Francesco Bagnaia: One year ago, Francesco Bagnaia won the 2025 Americas Grand Prix after Marc Marquez crashed out of the lead. But the Italian now returns to COTA simply looking to avoid another mistake in qualifying and to find answers. Bagnaia does not understand why he struggles in races after his seventh DNF in the past nine rounds in Brazil.

Tyler Rowlinson – Francesco Bagnaia: It has been a nightmare start to 2026 for Pecco, and one does not see that changing anytime soon. Bagnaia is lost on the bike and looks devoid of confidence. I fear another Q1 exit could be on the cards.