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MotoGP experts predict Thai GP as Marc Marquez opens title defence and Toprak Razgatlioglu debuts

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The 2026 MotoGP season gets underway this weekend with the Thai Grand Prix, as Marc Marquez begins his title defence.

Although pre-season has been filled with talks of the rider market for the 2027 season, it is time for the 2026 MotoGP Championship to begin in Thailand.

Marc Marquez comes into the season as the reigning world champion for the first time since his nightmare 2020 season. After picking up an injury at the end of 2025, injury issues are still a concern for the nine-time world champion in 2026.

In 2025, the Thai Grand Prix was dominated by Marquez, as he started his dominant season with the factory Ducati squad. However, Aprilia were snapping at Ducati’s heels during the pre-season tests at Sepang and Buriram.

What’s your podium prediction for the Thailand Grand Prix?

Photos by Mohd Rasfan / AFP/Gold & Goose Photography/Getty Images

Who will win the Thai Grand Prix?

David Comerford: Marc Marquez – I’m not brave enough to vote against him, even though he had those crashes in testing. He might get beaten to pole position, but that will only make him more determined to assert his authority in the race.

Kyle Archer: Marc Marquez’s third crash at the Buriram test meant he failed to complete a full race simulation. But the reigning MotoGP champion starting his seventh title defence on top in the Thailand Grand Prix is the most likely outcome, as he will come good by Sunday.

Ashley Hambly: Marco Bezzecchi ended pre-season with a new lap record in Buriram, and the Aprilia looks to have created the best package for the Thai circuit through Ai Ogura setting the second-best time. They’ll be the team to look out for this weekend.

Tyler Rowlinson: Marco Bezzecchi – with Marc Marquez’s fitness not being at 100%, it’s the perfect chance for Aprilia to capitalise. The RS-GP looks rapid and Bezzecchi is at his best; I think he’ll continue where he left off in 2025.

Luke Newman: Marc Marquez – Even though he had a few crashes during testing, it is hard to bet against the reigning champion. It may be a slightly more difficult weekend for him when compared to 2025, but I still see a dominant race performance from Marquez.

Who will finish on the podium?

David Comerford: As boring as it sounds, I’ll go with Alex Marquez second and Francesco Bagnaia third in a repeat of last year. Based on testing, I think this trio enter the race with the most confidence, although Marco Bezzecchi could be close too.

Kyle Archer: Ducati may be looking at starting the 2026 campaign with only the third one-two finish involving Marc Marquez and Francesco Bagnaia as teammates. But while Gresini star Alex Marquez displayed strong race pace throughout pre-season testing in Sepang and in Buriram, a mistake might let Aprilia rival Marco Bezzecchi sneak onto the podium in P3.

Ashley Hambly: Marc Marquez and Alex Marquez will join the Aprilia star on the podium. There’s no denying that Ducati will also be in contention for silverware in Thailand, and the two of the title favourites from the Italian constructor will be the ones to do so.

Tyler Rowlinson: With that said about Marquez, unless he takes too many risks, it’s hard to look past him for a podium or even the win. But I think Bez pips him for victory. And then for P3, I’m going with a surprise: Ai Ogura. He was the fastest in race simulations in the Buriram test, and with how impressive he was here last year, I don’t think a podium is out of the question.

Luke Newman: Marco Bezzecchi and Alex Marquez. I imagine we will see a familiar sight of Marc Marquez disappearing away at the front, which will leave Bezzecchi and Alex Marquez to fight it out for second place, which will become a common theme this season.

Which rider will struggle?

David Comerford: Let’s say Maverick Vinales. Expectations are high after all the hype around the Lorenzo partnership, but I’m sceptical about how big a difference coaching can make for a rider who’s already in his 30s. Besides, KTM look like they’ve stagnated, while Aprilia have kept pushing towards Ducati.

Kyle Archer: The question of which rider will struggle in the Thailand Grand Prix will likely be which Yamaha rider will finish last, with the V4 YZR-M1 far from ready to fight the other constructors’ new packages. And as Toprak Razgatlioglu is still learning, it will likely be him.

Ashley Hambly: I think Diogo Moreira will find it difficult to perform well on his debut. While we did see Ogura nail his maiden race last season at Thailand, the 2026 rookie may need a bit of time to get used to racing on premier class machinery.

Tyler Rowlinson: It’s the cop-out answer, I know, but Fabio Quartararo will have a miserable weekend in Thailand. That V4 looks so desperately underpowered, and with the Frenchman’s rage during the test, the mood around Yamaha is so glum. I wouldn’t be surprised if he doesn’t score points.

Luke Newman: I think it will be Enea Bastianini. The experienced MotoGP rider struggled during testing, and even though he thinks he has found a solution, I believe his struggles will carry over to the opening race of the season, leaving him as the last KTM rider and outside of the points.

Where will Toprak Razgatlioglu finish on his MotoGP debut?

David Comerford: Outside the points for me. The exact position will depend on the number of retirements, but I think Razgatlioglu will be lagging behind this weekend. It could be a few races before he starts to truly battle in the midfield.

Kyle Archer: Only two riders retired from the 2025 season-opening Thailand Grand Prix in Honda’s Joan Mir and Trackhouse’s Raul Fernandez, while KTM’s Pedro Acosta trailed the field ahead of only Aprilia’s injury stand-in Lorenzo Savadori after hitting the deck. So, P17 may be the target for Pramac Yamaha rookie Toprak Razgatlioglu in the 2026 Thailand GP.

Ashley Hambly: The Turk will be eyeing a points-paying position for his MotoGP debut, and I think he will be successful in securing one of the final spots of the top 15 in Buriram. Anything more than that would be a huge overachievement.

Tyler Rowlinson: P16, just outside the points. A couple of retirements might help him, but I don’t see him getting away from the back of the grid in Thailand.

Luke Newman: I don’t think he will finish. Although expectations aren’t high for Toprak Razgatlioglu’s first MotoGP race this weekend, I don’t think he will even see the chequered flag. He will probably spend the majority of the weekend at the back with Michele Pirro before crashing in the second half of the Grand Prix.