Marco Bezzecchi
Francesco Bagnaia is the great unknown heading into the 2026 MotoGP season. At his best, he can challenge Marc Marquez, but those peaks were exceedingly rare last year.
More often, Bagnaia slipped into the midfield. There were races where he was one of the slowest riders on track, such was his fundamental discomfort on the Ducati GP25.
With Aprilia arguably ending the season on Ducati’s level, the Bologna outfit can’t afford to be a one-rider team. On the individual level, Bagnaia knows that a contract extension is far from guaranteed.
Who is Ducati’s BEST option if they have to replace Francesco Bagnaia?
The Italian is a two-time MotoGP champion with 31 victories, but that historical record only counts for so much if he looks unrecognisable on track.
Giacomo Agostini says Francesco Bagnaia won’t need ‘long’ to hit top form
In an interview with GPOne, legendary rider Giacomo Agostini stressed that there are no doubts about Bagnaia’s talent.
Marc Marquez says Bagnaia stiffened up last season because he lost confidence on the bike, and Agostini agrees that his ‘mindset’ is the problem.
Equally, though, Marquez believes Bagnaia can ‘reset everything’ over the winter break. Agostini thinks he won’t need ‘long’ to recover even after hitting unthinkable low points in 2025.
Davide Tardozzi thinks Francesco Bagnaia is back 👀 How many races will he win in 2026?
“[I have] no advice,” he said. “Bagnaia is a great rider and has won world championships. He didn’t just stumble upon them.
“Now he’s going through a difficult time. I think it’s a question of morale, of mindset. Maybe he’s a bit disappointed because the things he expected at the beginning didn’t go well, so his morale has dropped.
“But it won’t take him long to get back to where he was before, because he has the talent.”
Is this the real favourite to replace Francesco Bagnaia at Ducati?
Davide Tardozzi expects to see the Bagnaia of 2024 when pre-season testing gets underway. He won 11 out of 20 Grands Prix that year and scored 16 podiums, finishing second in the championship behind Jorge Martin.
But externally, doubts continue to be raised over his future. Aprilia ambassador and former MotoGP star Max Biaggi thinks Bagnaia’s time is running out.
Multiple journalists expect unhappy Yamaha rider Fabio Quartararo to replace Bagnaia at Ducati, while Pedro Acosta and Fermin Aldeguer are also linked with the seat.
Bagnaia does have the advantage of incumbency, though, and even scoring regular podiums may be enough to keep his seat.
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