Valentino Rossi’s big Francesco Bagnaia prediction now hinges on the Ducati rider addressing one last weakness

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Francesco Bagnaia will start the European leg of the 2025 MotoGP season facing a 26-point deficit to his Ducati teammate, Marc Marquez, ahead of the Grand Prix of Spain.

MotoGP returns to Europe this weekend with its annual visit to Jerez after starting this term with fly-away races in Thailand, Argentina, America and Qatar. The races at Buriram, Termas, Austin and Lusail were very rewarding for Marquez, too, as he starts his adventure at Ducati.

Marquez scored pole position and won the Sprint Races at all four of the opening rounds of the 2025 MotoGP season. The 32-year-old has also won three of his first four Grands Prix in red to head the riders’ standings with 123 points ahead of his brother Alex Marquez on 106.

Bagnaia is only third in the championship standings ahead of the Spanish GP with 97 points to the 28-year-old’s name. And the Italian will prove over the next three rounds at Jerez, Le Mans and Silverstone if Bagnaia will truly be able to fight Marquez for the 2025 riders’ title.

Francesco Bagnaia must improve his Sprint Race results to beat Marc Marquez to the 2025 MotoGP title

MotoGP has moved the British Grand Prix forward to May this season in place of the Grand Prix of Catalunya, which it pushed to September. Silverstone will now follow the Spanish GP this weekend plus the Grand Prix of France on May 11, with the British GP now on May 25.

Those three races may prove whether Bagnaia can fight Marquez for the 2025 title, as well, as he has one vital weakness left to address for the Turin native to place his Spanish partner under pressure. If not, Marquez may leave Silverstone thinking his seventh title is in the bag.

READ MORE: Everything to know about Francesco Bagnaia from net worth to race number

Despite the dominant start that Marquez has enjoyed at Ducati, the biggest factor in his 26-point lead over Bagnaia has been the Sprint Races. After Marquez crashed in the lead of the Americas GP and Bagnaia got the win, they have scored 75 and 74 points in the Grands Prix.

Yet Marquez boasts a perfect score of 48 points from Sprint Races while Bagnaia has scored just 23 points to start 2025. The Cervera native has won every Sprint Race he has contested for Ducati so far, whereas the Italian was third in three and eighth in one to start this season.

Valentino Rossi predicted Francesco Bagnaia would ‘redeem himself’ by winning the 2025 title

Improving in Sprint Races is the one weakness Bagnaia simply must improve above all else if he is to win back the riders’ title Jorge Martin took from him last season. Bagnaia won back-to-back championships in 2022 and 2023 but was 10 points shy of the Spaniard last season.

Yet missing out on becoming a three-time champion in 2024 gave the Ducati rider a valuable lesson. Bagnaia’s mistakes in the 2024 season haunted his honeymoon over the winter as he paid the price for not accepting the result on offer and wasting chances to take more points.

Also, Valentino Rossi backed Bagnaia to win the 2025 MotoGP title and ‘redeem himself’ for last term’s failures against Martin. But the Italian is likely to fail to live up to the seven-time champion’s prediction without improving in the Sprints, especially in the next three rounds.

READ MORE: Everything to know about Marc Marquez from net worth to girlfriend

Marquez will gain yet further confidence he can win the 2025 title if Bagnaia does not find a better rhythm with the lighter fuel tank Ducati use in the Sprint Races at Jerez, Le Mans and Silverstone. He was also hindered at Lusail as Bagnaia crashed in qualifying for the Qatar GP.

The Sprint Races at the Spanish, French and British Grands Prix were among Bagnaia’s worst last year. He failed to take a single point in either, along with the Sprint Races at the Catalan and Malaysian Grands Prix, after crashing at Jerez and Silverstone whilst retiring at Le Mans.